Tax Refund Estimator (US)
Get a rough estimate of your US federal tax refund or amount owed based on your income, filing status, and withholding.
This calculator provides estimates only and is not financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
How to use this calculator
Enter your annual income, filing status, total federal withholding, and standard deduction (pre-filled for tax year 2026), then click Estimate Refund. If withholding exceeds your estimated liability, you get an estimated refund; if it's less, you get an estimated amount owed. Treat the result as a rough starting point, not a filing figure.
How is this calculated?
The calculator subtracts the standard deduction from your income to get taxable income, applies the 2026 progressive federal tax brackets to that taxable income to estimate your tax liability, and compares that to what you've already had withheld. This tool only models federal income tax with the standard deduction — it ignores credits, itemized deductions, state and local taxes, and other income adjustments.
Worked example (tax year 2026, single filer)
With the default inputs ($75,000 of income, $9,000 withheld, single), the $16,100 standard deduction leaves $58,900 of taxable income. The brackets are then applied one slice at a time:
- 10% on the first $12,400 = $1,240
- 12% on the next $38,000 (up to $50,400) = $4,560
- 22% on the remaining $8,500 = $1,870
Estimated tax is $7,670, so $9,000 of withholding means an estimated refund of $1,330. Note the two different rates. The marginal rate is 22%, which applies to the next dollar you earn, but the effective rate is 7,670 ÷ 75,000 ≈ 10.2% of income. A raise that pushes you into a higher bracket only taxes the part above the threshold at the higher rate.
Where the figures come from
The standard deductions ($16,100 single, $32,200 married filing jointly) and bracket thresholds are the IRS's tax year 2026 figures (Rev. Proc. 2025-32), which already include the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act changes. They apply to returns filed in 2027. If you are still finishing a 2025 return, the 2025 standard deduction was raised by the same law to $15,750 (single) and $31,500 (married filing jointly), and the 2025 brackets differ slightly, so use the IRS's own 2025 figures rather than this estimate.
When the estimate will be off
The estimate models wage income with the standard deduction and nothing else, so expect a difference if you have children (Child Tax Credit), qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit, itemize deductions, have self-employment or investment income, or claim one of the newer deductions introduced by the 2025 law, such as those for tips, overtime pay or taxpayers 65 and older. If the result shows a large amount owed, the usual fix is adjusting your W-4 with your employer so more is withheld from each paycheck for the rest of the year. The IRS's Tax Withholding Estimator is the official tool for working out that adjustment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do I owe money instead of getting a refund?
You owe money when your total withholding is less than your estimated tax liability — often because too little was withheld from your paychecks relative to your income. Check that your W-4 withholding matches your actual income situation, especially after a raise or a second job.
What counts as withholding?
Withholding is the federal income tax your employer already took out of your paychecks throughout the year, shown in Box 2 of your W-2. It does not include Social Security or Medicare tax withheld, which are separate from income tax.
Can I use it if I file as head of household?
Not accurately. It offers only Single and Married Filing Jointly. Head of household has its own tax brackets and a $24,150 standard deduction for 2026 according to the IRS, so entering that deduction here would still apply the wrong brackets. Married filing separately uses the single standard deduction ($16,100) but has brackets of its own too.
Is this tool accurate enough for filing my taxes?
No. This is a simplified estimate meant to give you a rough sense of where you stand, not a substitute for tax software or a tax professional. Use IRS-provided tools or consult a qualified preparer for anything you actually file.